Genetics and Health

New Experimental Paradigm: Strong-Inference-Plus

by Hsien Hsien Lei, PhD on November 8th, 2005

A while ago, I wrote that the genomic revolution with its whole genome scans was turning the scientific method on its head. Now Dr. Don Jewett is suggesting a new paradigm for hypothesis testing called strong-inference-plus which has exploratory, pilot, and hypotheses testing phases.

Exploratory Phase

• Research proceeds by hunches, serendipitous observations, and selections based on inadequate information.
• Pet theories are certainly acceptable here, if they work.
• Scientific creativity can play a crucial role.
• New scientific instruments or methods might demonstrate their worth.

Pilot Phase

• A small number of experiments, usually six to eight, are replicated under identical experimental conditions.
• Experiential test of the exploratory phase.
• A statistical power calculation of the pilot data will predict the size of study necessary in order for the hypotheses-testing phase to have a reasonable probability of success.

Hypotheses-Testing Phase

• None of the experimental data from the exploratory and pilot phases can be reused in the hypotheses-testing phase, in order to avoid statistical bias.
• Most efficient when the multiple hypotheses of strong-inference are utilized to guide the experiments

Informally, most scientists progress through each of these phases when conducting experiments and testing hypotheses. But, as Dr. Jewett points out, the critical paradigm shift may come in changing funding committees’ expectations that results from the exploratory or pilot phases should be held to the same standards as results from the hypotheses-testing phase.

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